Hollard Campaign Forecast Tool (MLM – My Life and More)

Forecast monthly commission cash-in vs key cost centers to test campaign viability before onboarding and resourcing. Built around: Agents → Sales → Collection → Commission, with lead costs driven by Accepted→Sale conversion.

0) Forecast Controls POC-ready

Forecast uses monthly periods starting at this date.
Length of forecast horizon (months).
Use agent-based for POC; switch to target when traction assumptions become primary.
Hollard’s example uses ~R3,600 per successful policy in Y1 not taking retention holdback into account.

1) Volume & Funnel Assumptions

Initial onboarded sales agents for the POC.
Used to convert sales/day to monthly policies sold (Hollard’s example implies 10 working days for 60 sales/month).
Example: 3 sales per agent per day.
Projected policies/month once traction is gained (used when Volume Driver = Target Policies Sold).
Example: 10% (600 accepted leads → 60 sales).
Acceptance rate from Fetched leads into Accepted leads (used to estimate required fetched volume).
100% Stop Order business; this is the assumed first-premium collection success rate.

2) Product & Commission Assumptions

Product: MLM (My Life and More) — consolidated life + funeral + short-term insurance. Avg premium provided: R500.

Note: Viability KPIs default to Year-1 cash-in. Optional Year-2 and annual review are displayed as upside only.

3) Cost Assumptions

Choose whether paid media cost is modeled at Accepted or Fetched level. Funnel summary will still show both volumes.
Used when Lead Cost Basis = Cost per Fetched Lead. If you only know CPL per accepted, leave basis on “Accepted”.

4) Derived Commission Values (Calculated)

Metric
Value
Unit

Paid Media Summary & Campaign Economics (Single Month)

This section summarises the paid media funnel (Fetched → Accepted → Sold → Collected) and how lead costs translate into profit.

Unit Economics (Single Month — based on current inputs) Viability snapshot

Metric Value Unit Notes
Break-even math: (1) Max allowable CPL solves Profit=0 holding volume constant. (2) Break-even policies solves Profit=0 holding CPL constant.

Paid Media Summary Fetched → Accepted → Sold → Collected

This section is calculated from the same driver assumptions as Unit Economics. Switch Lead Cost Basis (Inputs → Cost Assumptions) to model media cost at Fetched or Accepted level.

Campaign Economics

Unit economics by funnel stage (month 1)
Break-even thresholds (month 1)
Assumption checks

    Sensitivity (quick stress test)

    10.0%
    50%
    R80
    Sensitivity uses month 1 assumptions and updates profit, margin, and break-even CPL in real time. It does not overwrite your saved inputs.

    Monthly Forecast (Revenue vs Cost Centers) Override-ready

    Each month can override Agents, Working Days, Sales/Agent/Day, Collection%, Conversion%, and CPL. Defaults copy from Inputs until overridden.

    Month Agents Work Days Sales/Agent/Day Policies Sold Collection % Collected Policies Conv% (Acc→Sale) Acc% (Fet→Acc) Fetched Leads Accepted Leads CPL/Accepted CPL/Fetched Lead Cost Y1 Comm/Collected Revenue (Y1) Fixed Costs Total Cost Net Profit
    Fixed costs scale with Agents: Agent payroll, FSCA monthly (annual/12), Compliance per agent. Compliance management, TL/Manager, QA, Other are fixed monthly.

    Visuals (Decision View) interactive tooltips

    These charts are designed for viability decisions: where profit is coming from, what’s driving cost, and how the funnel behaves.

    Financial Overview (Monthly)

    Revenue
    Lead Cost
    Fixed Costs
    Net Profit
    Stacked cost bars + revenue & profit lines. Hover points/bars for exact values.

    Cost Breakdown (Monthly)

    Lead Cost
    Agent Payroll
    Compliance (Agents)
    Compliance Mgmt
    TL/Manager
    QA
    Other
    This helps explain “paperwork + compliance overhead” vs media vs payroll at a glance.

    Funnel Snapshot (Select Month)

    Fetched → Accepted → Sold → Collected with stage rates and implied costs.
    Tip: if you’re modelling ramp to “50 policies once traction is gained”, use monthly overrides for Policies Sold (or switch to Target mode) and watch the profit break-even month in the Financial Overview.

    Assumptions & Definitions

    Key definitions

    • Policies Sold: policies written (sales). Driven either by agent production or target policies.
    • Collected Policies: sold policies where first premium (1P) is collected (Stop Order).
    • FYC (First-Year Commission): annualised premium × FYC%. Annualised premium = monthly premium × 12.
    • Retention Holdback: % of FYC held back (often released later). “Net Cash-In” subtracts this; “Gross” ignores it.
    • Fetched Leads: top-of-funnel lead volume generated (e.g., form submits / raw leads) before acceptance filtering.
    • Fetched → Accepted Rate: acceptance % from fetched leads into accepted leads.
    • Accepted Leads: accepted lead volume required to produce Policies Sold given Accepted→Sale conversion.
    • Lead Cost: depends on Lead Cost Basis — either (Accepted × CPL/Accepted) or (Fetched × CPL/Fetched).
    • Fixed Costs: agent payroll + FSCA monthly + compliance per agent + compliance management + (optional) TL/Manager + QA + Other.

    Math audit notes

    • When Conversion% is 0, Accepted Leads = 0 to avoid divide-by-zero.
    • Break-even Policies requires positive contribution margin: (Collection × CashIn) − (CPL / Conversion) > 0.
    • The app recalculates live; “Copy inputs → all months” resets month-level overrides to the global assumptions.